Crude Oil Edges Higher at Week’s Start - Market Outlook and Key Technical Levels

Crude oil prices opened the new week with a modest bullish tone, reflecting cautious optimism in the energy markets. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded at $65.09 per barrel during early European hours on Monday, slightly above Friday’s close of $65.00. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil remained broadly stable near $68.70 per barrel.

While the price movement is relatively small, it offers valuable insights into how demand expectations, supply dynamics, and broader macroeconomic factors are shaping sentiment in the oil market this week.

Market Snapshot: WTI Pushes Higher, Brent Steady

• WTI (U.S. benchmark): $65.09 per barrel ⬆️ (vs. $65.00 previous close)
• Brent (global benchmark): ~$68.70 per barrel ➡️ (unchanged)

The slight uptick in WTI suggests underlying demand remains supportive, while Brent’s stable performance indicates that the market is still seeking a clear catalyst for a larger directional move.

Fundamental Factors Driving the Market

Several key elements continue to influence oil prices:

• Demand Outlook: Signs of steady consumption, particularly from Asian economies, are providing a floor for prices.
• Supply Dynamics: Ongoing OPEC+ output management and potential supply disruptions remain closely watched.
• Monetary Policy: Central bank actions, particularly from the U.S. Federal Reserve, may influence broader risk sentiment and commodity demand.
• Geopolitical Developments: Tensions in key oil-producing regions continue to support a risk premium in crude markets.

These forces combined are contributing to oil’s current range-bound movement, with traders awaiting clearer signals before committing to more directional positions.

Technical Overview: Watching the Key Zones

From a technical perspective, oil prices remain within a well-defined range, but price action suggests a potential build-up toward a more decisive move.

• Immediate Support: ~$64.50 — a sustained move below this level could increase downside pressure.
• Immediate Resistance: ~$65.50 — a break above this zone could signal renewed bullish momentum.
• Medium-Term Trend: Neutral-to-slightly bullish, with price structure showing higher lows in recent sessions.

Key Price Scenarios to Monitor

While not trade recommendations, the following scenarios highlight potential price reactions around key levels:

🔹 Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Above $65.50 A sustained move above resistance could indicate improving demand sentiment and open the door for further upside potential.

🔻 Scenario 2: Pullback Below $64.50 A break below support may reflect renewed selling pressure, possibly triggered by weaker demand expectations or shifting macro conditions.

Traders often use such key levels as reference points to monitor momentum shifts and adjust their strategies accordingly.

The Bigger Picture

Oil’s modest advance to start the week suggests a cautious but constructive market tone. Although the near-term outlook remains range-bound, upcoming economic data, U.S. inventory reports, and central bank commentary could act as catalysts for stronger price moves.

For market participants, the focus remains on whether WTI can break above resistance or if renewed selling pressure will emerge. Until then, careful observation of fundamental drivers and technical levels is essential.

Key takeaway: Crude oil remains range-bound but supported by steady demand signals. Price action around the $64.50–$65.50 range is likely to shape short-term direction, with broader macro and geopolitical developments continuing to influence momentum.

Risk Disclaimer: Trading leveraged products such as CFDs involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.

email: info@brillantcapital.com

‍