Gold Powers Above $3,750 as Rate Cut Hopes Stay Alive

Gold is showing strength today. XAU/USD has pushed beyond $3,750, extending its upside momentum — driven by resilient demand, softening U.S. macro data, and hopes that the Federal Reserve will lean into rate cuts later this year.

That said, this is far from a one-directional rally. Traders must stay alert, as commentary, data, and sentiment swings can quickly shift the narrative.

Market Drivers & Sentiment

1. Fed & Rate Cut Outlook

Markets are still pricing in potential rate reductions this year. Even though Fed officials have sounded cautious, the underlying expectation is that milder inflation or weak economic prints could open the door for easing. That belief is helping gold’s narrative.

2. Safe-Haven Demand + Risk Premium

Concerns about a U.S. government shutdown and mounting global uncertainties are pushing flows toward safe-haven assets like gold. When risk perception rises, gold often gets a bid.

3. Technical Confirmation

Gold clearing above $3,750 is a psychologically and technically important move. It suggests momentum is gathering, but the path ahead is likely to test both support and resistance levels.

4. Macro Data as a Catalyst

Upcoming U.S. inflation, jobs, and central bank commentary will be key. Any surprise — especially signs that inflation is cooling — could re-energize gold’s upside. Conversely, hawkish surprises could trigger pullbacks.

Here’s what to watch in the charts:

Zone Role Significance

Support Zone $3,720 – $3,740 .A pullback into this zone may offer entry for bulls if support holds

Resistance Zone $3,800 – $3,810 A sustained break above here could unlock further gains

Intermediate Pivot $3,770 Often acts as the battleground for bulls vs. bears in trending markets

Additional observations:

• The 14-day RSI is edging into overbought territory, cautioning that momentum might pause or pull back before further advances.
• Gold is holding above its 100-day EMA, which helps validate the bullish trend in the medium term.
• A clear, decisive close above the $3,800 zone may shift sentiment more aggressively bullish.

Final Thoughts

Gold’s recent breakout above $3,750 shows the bulls have regained control — at least for now. But the outlook is far from settled. The next moves will likely depend on U.S. macro surprises and Fed messaging.

Stay nimble, focus on your risk management, and watch how gold reacts to $3,720–$3,740 support and $3,800 resistance. A decisive move beyond either zone could define the near-term trend.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or trading recommendations. Trading precious metals, foreign exchange, and derivatives involves substantial risk. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider seeking advice from a qualified professional before making financial decisions.

email: info@brillantcapital.com

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