WTI Pushes Above $64.50 After Surprise Inventory Drop

Oil prices are waking up again. WTI crude climbed modestly above $64.50 on Thursday after U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly fell — a supply shock that caught the market off guard and handed bulls a reason to breathe.

But before you chase the move, remember: this rally is walking a tightrope between bullish supply data and broader macro headwinds. Here’s how the setup looks for traders right now 👇

Surprise Draw in U.S. Inventories Lights a Spark

The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed crude stockpiles fell by 607,000 barrels last week — a sharp contrast to forecasts calling for a 235,000-barrel build.

Why does this matter? Because inventory levels are one of the cleanest signals of supply-demand dynamics. A drawdown like this suggests stronger demand or tightening supply, both of which typically support higher prices.

This surprise — coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions and threats to global energy supply chains — helped push WTI back above the $64.50 mark, keeping bullish sentiment alive.

Fed Policy Looms as a Counterweight

On the flip side, the Federal Reserve continues to cast a long shadow over commodities. Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious tone this week signaled that monetary easing won’t be rushed, and inflation remains a key concern.

That stance has lifted the U.S. dollar — a headwind for commodities like oil that are priced in USD. As a result, some of WTI’s upside is being capped, creating a tug-of-war between bullish supply signals and macroeconomic caution.

Key Levels and Trading Setups to Watch

If you’re trading crude oil or CFDs tied to WTI, here’s what deserves your focus:

• Support: $63.50 – $64.00 zone. A pullback into this range could offer a buying opportunity if demand remains firm.
• Resistance: Around $65.50+. That’s where sellers may re-emerge if macro pressures intensify.
• Catalysts: Keep an eye on the U.S. dollar, central bank commentary, and geopolitical headlines — all can shift sentiment quickly.

And remember, oil rarely moves in a straight line. With conflicting forces in play, volatility spikes are opportunities — if you’re prepared.

The Bigger Picture

Right now, WTI is walking a fine line: supply-side support from falling inventories vs. macro drag from a firmer dollar and cautious Fed. This kind of setup often rewards traders who stay nimble — quick to adjust as new data hits the tape.

The real question isn’t whether oil is bullish or bearish — it’s whether you’re ready to trade the swings. 📈

📍 Key takeaway: The surprise draw in U.S. inventories gives oil bulls an edge, but macro forces haven’t left the room. Stay focused on the $63.50 support and $65.50 resistance levels — and be ready to act when price momentum picks a side.

💡 Pro Tip: Range conditions like this can quickly transition into trend moves. Use tighter stop-losses and watch for breakouts above resistance or breakdowns below support — that’s where the next directional play will likely unfold.

Comment below what your take is on this?

Or

Email us: info@brillantcapital.com

‍